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Monday, October 18, 2021

KSE100 Week 41-2021: Closing Notes

 A new bottom discovery has been observed and the performance over the next week will determine if it is to hold or not. Weekly average market capitalization once again closed with a whopping loss but the last two days of trading have shown a hopeful recovery. Looking forward, the week ahead holds a lot of weight to determine the market future. But something can be said with confidence, the bulls had a beating of their lifetime. But now the bears are tired and may go into their winter hibernation. 

Events that may affect the bourse is MTB auction on 20-Oct.

Sunday, October 10, 2021

KSE 100 - Week 40-2021 : Weekly Roundup & Uncertanity!

 Uncertainty remained at the bourse and there is nothing much to update. Weekly capitalization closed again after several weeks of hefty losses. With only twelve weeks to go for annual closing, the market has shown no signs of respite since July. On the fundamental front, the situation is likely to remain unpredictable as long as chaos persists in Afghanistan. Cental bank announcement to curb USD outflow should provide some support to PKR. If PKR devaluation is curtailed then we may see the outflow reverse and recovery possible in PSX. Overall, PSX has become an unattractive investment under the current government despite making tax reforms and reducing CGT, the bourse has failed to sustain above its benchmark of 8000+ Bn/PKR. There are no money market events (MTB, PIB & Sukuk auctions) that may impact the market in the week ahead, 

Sunday, October 3, 2021

KSE100 Week 39-2021: The Pandora Leaks Open!

 Another week-long of pathetic performance but with a hope of support at 43800 +/- 300. The destiny looks to be a weak double top. Market in the coming week will be driven by the reaction of Pandora Leaks therefore not much can be speculation. Looking forward, the action plan is to sell on strength and exit for good. As the political and economic front looks turbulent for the country and bond yields are showing a gradual rise. 

The week closed with massive capitalization loss once again with the average dropping below the benchmark of 8000+ Bn/PKR. This is a third failed attempt to cross this hard-line which demonstrates a serious limit to inflows into the market. Happy trading and do let us know your feedback in the comment section below. 

Sunday, September 26, 2021

KSE100 Week 38-2021: Roll the Red Carpet for Exit Strategy!

Bourse remained unpredictable and whip-saw the entire week. There is no predictable move to analyze and write any technical analysis on. There seems to be a suspicious quiet on the abnormal behavior from July to Sep currently. Reforms happen to be a long-term thought-out process done swiftly after a lot of deliberation. Pakistan bourse seems to become a playground of policymaking at the whim. Instead of a well thought out process being put forward, the slow introduction combined with piecemeal reforms takes a toll on the market every few months. On the fundamental side, the central bank has upped the interest rate by 25 basis points but that alone is not a significant impact to drive the market down. However, it does point to the future tendency of the interest rates rising to cool down inflation. This pretty much means it's time to pack up bags from the PSX. 

There is no obvious explanation of the capitalization meltdown, but the massive loss does paint a picture of the game over. It's time to roll the red carpet for an exit strategy. Let us know your opinions in the comments section below. 

Sunday, September 19, 2021

KSE100 Week 37-2021 : Bulls Get Slaughtered Again!

If there is to be a loser in Pakistani history written down in golden words, it has to be the KSE100 index right now. Not only it keeps failing to keep any trajectory but it has also perplexed many analysts into frustration. Some had a hint of this when the longer-term futures were launched but seriously it wasn't expected to run this long. PSX remains a bourse where long-term policymaking is absent and short-term fixes prevail to benefit the few. A downward slide is part of any bourse but to keep it frustratingly slow is an art mastered as PSX. Currently, the index is not holding any support or resistance, and it's worthless to make any speculation on it. Take benefit of the dip and briskly sell away at strength. At some point, the fortunes will take a turn for the better. Major support and resistance are marked below. 46500 +/- 200 is proving to be pivotal support but due to the instability of the market, it cannot be relied upon so early. 

Average weekly capitalization has remained on a losing streak for three consecutive weeks but also the losses are shrinking which could be a sign of exhaustion. Only hope can save us! 

MTB auction on 22-Sep may adversely affect the bourse. 

Sunday, September 12, 2021

KSE100 Week 36-2021 : The Bulls Start to Wake Up!

 A break below 47000 +/- 300 was observed with a floor break during the week but weekly closing has once again been sustained above the floor. The bulls have begun to wave up but only their continued marching forward will ensure their survivability. Looking forward the stance should be accumulating the dip and protecting the profits. The week ahead will be the decision-maker. There is not much to analyze from this week as its continuation of the same stance. 

Another week closed with a losing market capitalization but the last trading day made the highest gains and the trend is expected to continue in the next. So happy trading and do let us know your feedback in the comments section below. 

Saturday, September 4, 2021

KSE100 Week 35-2021 : Between Downpour and Downtrend!

The week saw another flop performance with 47000 +/- 300 tested once again as support. There has not been any noticeable change in the market performance to highlight in an update. The last trading day of the week was also washed down by heavy rains which have always shown a tendency of triggering panic sell. Read the last few week's updates to get a good glimpse into the most disappointing performance ever. However, we did suspect the bourse to go through a cycle reset which it is doing pretty much. This will open up the upside for a new high. So looking forward, the strategy is to take advantage of the dip and wait for a breakout. 

Market capitalization has remained flat. Gains made in one week were lost in the next. With average weekly capitalizations fluctuating in a narrow range. This doesn't really point towards anything but a painful range-bound market. There is nothing visible in immediate range to speculate on it. Hold with patience and carry on. 

If you enjoyed reading this update do let us know in the comments sections below. 


Saturday, August 28, 2021

KSE100 Week 34-2021 : Bears Dance In The Bourse!

Pivotal rejection at 48200 +/-100 shot the bourse down harder than expected but the bottom line at 47000 +/- 300 held on and this may prove to be the new floor.  All hints point towards a cycle reset which has kept the market range bound. Looking forward we maintain the stance of accumulation on the dip. Currently, the index stands at the edge of bearish territory but with significant exhaustion of deep downside. Patience and preservation will be a winner. All major support and resistance levels are marked below on the chart. 

An interesting development noticed is the increased volatility after the launch of 60 & 90 days futures. This has given rise to uncertainty in the market and the effect may take few months to level off. This is only a hypothesis as there is not enough data to back the theory so one may just proceed with keen observance before weighing in an opinion. Any further development will be notified in this blog. 

To better understand this post you may read the updates made in the last few weeks. 

An interesting metric to observe as the index hit a new high of capitalization on the first day of the week but failed to sustain later. However, the week still closed with positive capitalization gains which may be the catalyst for the performance in the weeks ahead. Overall the outlook is neutral with wait and watch approach. 

Happy trading and do let us know your feedback in the comments section below. Your input helps us improve. 

Sunday, August 22, 2021

KSE 100 Week 33-2021 : Are We Up Yet?

Turbulent days of the bourse come to an end with stability appearing on the horizon. During this time many traders had panicked and lost their cool along with their money. Because impatient trader and their money part ways very soon in the stock market. 47000 +/- 300 remained the absolute floor showing multiple bounces eventually signaling a return of bulls. Hurdle remains at pivotal resistance of 48200 +/- 100 while a double top around 49000 +/- 300 is expected. All major support and resistance levels are marked on the chart below. Looking forward the strategy remains taking advantage of the dip with a special focus on cyclicals such as cement, steel, auto and refineries. 

With two public holidays during the week, market capital does not represent an accurate picture with the weekly average still closing in the red but holding well to its benchmark. We expect to see better days ahead. 

Sunday, August 15, 2021

KSE100 Week 32-2021 : A Dull & Dead Bourse in Focus!

The index remained totally dull and dead throughout the week holding the 47000 +/- 300 as a support by the thread. Rumors blame the situation on developments in Afghanistan and a tussle between brokers and PSX management. To avoid any speculation, we have always traded by pure technical review only. Looking forward, the stance remains taking advantage of the dip but the situation overall isn't clear with a directionless market. We may expect better days ahead after passing the long weekend due to two days of Moharram Holidays. Wait and see approach may be the best remedy. 

Weekly average capitalization is moving in a narrow range and there is no clear momentum. But overall it has sustained itself above the 8000+ billion/PKR benchmark and that is a necessary support for making a higher breakout.. 

Happy trading and do let us know your feedback in the comments section below. 

Monday, August 9, 2021

Week 31-2021 : The Rat Race of Life?

 In a rather unorthodox update, today is not about stocks but market capitalization data is updated below.

 I have taken a break to emotionally redeem myself. I do feel happier and better connected to my inner self. I did get a second lease on life and it has shown me new realities and a different perspective on life for a better cause. Life is a lot more than wealth and material. It is also about connecting with our real inner self, cherishing great moments of passion, happiness, joy, and making great memories with dear ones. Time once passed will never return. Often tangled in a web of materialism and wealth building, are we trampling our most precious and invaluable life for paper? . One can never feel the true happiness of life without being humble and emphatically connecting with others. 

To give and receive unconditional love, acceptance, trust, honor, loyalty, and respect is truly the greatest joy of this mortal life. To understand that life is merely a phase that must come to an end for everyone, yet we struggle very hard to achieve materialistic possessions but do very little effort to connect with our true inner self and try to understand who are we? We take nothing to our graves and leave nothing behind except great memories. Even material possessions of the deceased left behind are valued for the memories and great moments they remind us of. Let us begin a new struggle in life where accomplishments are not measured in numbers but in emotions, empathy, and passion. A way of life where workaholism is not tolerated, emotions are respected and happiness is cherished over materialism. Where work-life is balanced with healthy personal time to connect with friends and family for creating great memories together. Where every photo, every possession, and every penny earned or spent tells a story of great joy, pleasure, emotions, and feeling alive. 

Let us not be mere mortals who exist to follow a robotic routine but a society where we live and behave more humanely with pure emotions. A pledge to not corrupt that baby-like innocence of our future generations with shadows of fear, greed, and a rat race to the top. Let us build a society that is not about valuing our existence by our wealth and jobs. Where relations are carved out of true passion and emotion. A place where children are raised to feel human first, have empathy as their core values, and be at peace with their true inner self. A culture that is free of pride, prejudice, racism, hate, bigotry, and stereotyping? Can we do that? A new day has come with new questions to think and ponder? As one of my nearest and dearest friends always says, "there is 5% hope even when 95% is gone". Do we all have that hope? 

Have a very nice and bright day and do let us know your views in the comments section below.