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Friday, November 29, 2019

KSE 100 Index - Update 29 Nov

Market did defy our expectations of corrective dip during first half of Friday, instead it maintained an upwards trajectory all day, hit intraday resistance at 39400 +/- 100 points and maintained a closing above its critical weekly resistance of 38900 +/- 100. Which means the bull rally will continue in the next week. Overall, today's performance was above our expectations. 

38900 +/-100 points acted as resistance until Thursday, 28 Nov but market had a start on Friday, 29 Nov from this value as support which means the uptrend was wide and clear from the onset of market opening. Positive sign indeed!

Our updated expectations on week 49 will be published as a new post by Sunday evening. 

Wish you a cheerful weekend ahead!

Thursday, November 28, 2019

KSE 100 Index - Update 28 Nov

Market honored its predicted resistance at 38900 +/-100 points as per our post on 27 Nov. Fluctuations were relatively narrow through out the day signalling a smooth end of roll over period. We expect market to take moderate correction during the first half of Friday 29, Nov while second half may remain business as usual. 

38900 +/- retains its position as intra-day resistance and sustaining a close over this will create further space for bull rally next week. On down side support lies at 38400-38050 +/-100 points respectively. If tough resistance is observed, we may see a deeper than expected correction during week 49.

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

KSE 100 - The Green Comeback - Update 27 Nov

Market maintained its see-saw trajectory which remains the hallmark of rollover period and honored its first support at 37700 +/- 100 points as predicted on 26 Nov. Impact of political noise appeared minimal. Today's dip once again presented an opportunity for short-sellers to exit their positions while investors accumulated on dip. 

Looking forward, we reinstate out expectations of 38500-38900 +/- 100 points as next resistance level and do nothing other than wait. 

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

KSE 100 - Good Technical Saves the Day - Update 26 Nov

Market opened at a normal pace and maintained expected upward momentum but over-reacted to political news and got shot down from an intraday high of 38550 +/- 50 points. On lower end, market broke our predicted intraday resistance of 38100 point due to panic selling but second intraday support at 37500 +/- 100 points was tested twice and well honored. Overall, market closed on an indecisive ending with depressed prices offering an opportunity to short-sellers for squaring their positions. Volumes made another historic high once again - a sign of good omen. Panic sellers lost the ground while those watching patiently for second support got space to accumulate at dip. End of the day, market rewards patience.  

Looking forward, we expect market to make gains once again on the back of political noise settlement and our target of first resistance at 38900 +/- 100 points remains intact for upside.

In event of downside, support is expected at 37700 - 37300 +/- 100 points.
Edit 6:30PM

Individuals turned out to be biggest panic sellers, showing high value of gross buy/sell but very low net value. While institutions maintained their calm and rode through the turbulence.

Wish you a very happy and profitable trading!

Monday, November 25, 2019

KSE 100 Index Update - 25 NOV

Index behaved as per our prediction made on 24 Nov, showing a see-saw market movement and honoring its intraday resistance at 38200 +/- 100 points twice. Closing coincided with intraday resistance, which shows an upper hand for bulls. Looking forward, we expect the market to remain on track for hitting its expected weekly channel top along with end of roll over period.

Looking forward we expect KSE 100 resistance and support to fall at 38900 - 38100 +/- 100 points respectively. 

Wish you a very happy and profitable trading!

Sunday, November 24, 2019

KSE 100 - Looking Forward Week 48

Roll over week falls between between 25 Nov - 29 Nov and traditionally market remains see-saw during this period. We expect market to post a weak intraday resistance at 38200 +/- 100 points and channel top at 38900 +/- 100 points after the end of roll over week. Closing above channel top will give another wave of bull rally. Trading usually remains dull in the last month of the year and market could remain range bound. We do not expect any major bullish outbreak during Dec'19 due to holiday season in Europe and Americas. Which will keep foreign buyer activity depressed.

Wish you a very happy and profitable trading week ahead! 

Friday, November 22, 2019

KSE 100 Index Review - Week 47 Closing Bell

KSE 100 honored its critical support with in the expected range predicted on 17 Nov and completed its technical correction cycle. Day opened on a negative note where index first dipped to its final support before bulls returned to the race closing the index at 37925 points, slightly missing the 38K critical resistance by razor margin. 

Overall market performance remained satisfactory and with in our expectations envelope with acceptable margin of error.

Lead buyers today were mutual funds again, we suspect these are funds putting their surplus liquidity back into the stock market after 20 Nov T-bills auctions which saw fund heavily on the selling side. 

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Crash landing at KSE 100 - Index Update 21 Nov

KSE-100 behaved inline with our predictions posted earlier and took a steep dive of correction to close at -936 points. We expect this corrective trend to continue until first half of Friday, 22 Nov and second half is expected to be indecisive or moderately bullish. Key support level now falls in the range of 36800 - 36300 +/- 100 points. 

First support of 37200 +/- 100 points as predicted on 17 Nov was hit today. 

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

May Day at KSE 100 - Update 20 NOV

Inline with our early warning issued on 18 & 19-Nov, market finally let some steam out and dipped for correction, closing more than -526 points in negative. Major event today was T-Bill auction of 256.03 billions, which caught up this time with its tradition of pulling capital away from equities market making banks and mutual funds as key sellers of the day. 

KSE-100 opened at slight upwards trend hitting yesterdays intra-day support of 38500 points as today's resistance and then slipped downwards all day until hitting its expected intra-day support of 38000 +/- 100 points. Totally expected! 

Looking forward, we expect KSE-100 to approach its first intraday support at 37200 - 36800 +/- 100 points, but there will be no surprise if it manages to reverse before hitting key support due to strong buyer's interest.

Happy Trading!

The Stock Master Team

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

KSE-100 Index Update 19 Nov

Inline with our prediction on 18 Nov, market remained overheated with range bound activity between its intraday support and resistance spectrum finally closing indecisively at pivot. Price dips were seen in certain sectors which signals saturation and investor preference to take profit.  With Futures Market roll over week falling ahead, we expect correction to coincide with roll over week and present an opportunity to buyers for accumulation on dip.

Short selling shall only be exercised by cautious investor with discipline and experience. 

Bond yield started to rise again after State Bank busted the speculative bubble on interest rate drop by confirming that any drop shall not come before February 2020 review. 

Monday, November 18, 2019

Ting Tong: PSX is now flying at 38,411 Point high!

With reference to our post on 17 Nov, market did break the 38K barrier with over heated indicators. Looking forward, if index continue to rise without taking due correction, then 38K - 40K will remain overheated territory where sensible risk management is necessary.  Continue to hold long positions and play it safe by exchanging saturated items with those still early in the trend.

Expected behavior of the market:

  • It will continue an over-heated trend until its next resistance of 40K where correction will be observed.

  • Market will take a sudden reversal randomly above 38K to make a correction. 

Overall, market move today warns of an impeding storm as it deviated from its expected healthy trend to hit the speculative line and speculative markets do not last long. Keeping trailing profit taking stops will provide maximum gains and protect from sudden market reversal. We expect correction period to coincide with FUT-NOV roll over period. 

We wish you a very happy very profitable trading!

Sunday, November 17, 2019

KSE 100 Index Review - Week 47

Market has entered overheated territory and there lies double resistance at 38000 +/-100 Points. Usually double resistance are very difficult to break, therefore we expect correction to set in here with initial support range between 37200 - 36800. 

On the upper side, break above the 38000 +/-100 point double resistance means the bulls have gone wild and index will take a wild ride along it. This means that either speculative buyers are pushing the index or short-sellers stop-loss is hit and and triggered aggressive short covering wave. 

Maintain your trailing stop loss for profit taking and we  wish you a happy profitable trading!

Friday, November 15, 2019

The bulls keep charging! - Target 38000

Inline with our expectations posted on 14th Nov, market honored its critical support all day and successfully broke it intraday resistance of 37500 +/- 100 points to close higher. The bulls will continue to charge! Target 38000 +/- 100 points. 🎯🎯🎯

YTD yield continues its consistent growth and hit 1.40%.

Thursday, November 14, 2019

KSE 100 Index Update : NOV 14

Inline with our expectations posted on  13 Nov - market gave a choppy rally, honoring its intraday support and resistance range of 37100 - 37500 (+/-100) points with a range bound session. We are on the last 1000 points leg of a bullish rally and this is confirmation signal of market saturation where existing investors are booking profit and less fresh investment is entering. Looking forward, we continue to expect a choppy range bound session with 37100 +/- 100 being critical support level, breaking which can trigger a down trend. 

Update: Looking forward to next trading session on Friday Nov 15, first half has historically been a weak session always. Any overdue correction shall set in during this time and second half will see business as usual. A momentary break below 37100 +/- 100 is possible due to inherent weakness of first half but any dip will be part of the wider whipsaw behavior of the market. 

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

The Decisive Hour: 38000 Points. Yay or Nay?

KSE100: Market behaved inline with our expectations posted on 12th Nov. Major event today was PIB Auction which has typically caused outflow of capital from stock market. However, it failed to make a dent today. Market whipsawed in its support zone and then surged to closed above its intraday resistance of  37100 +/- 100 points. 

Another encouraging trigger was market turning to positive YTD growth after a long time. 

Since market is approaching its saturation point, looking forward we should expect a choppy rally towards its next major resistance of  38000 (+/- 100 Points) points. Aborted uptrend may trigger panic selling which will lead to deep correction downwards and an opportunity for patient investor to accumulate further.


Interim resistance lies at 37500 (+/-100) and support lies at 37100 (+/-100)

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

KSE100 Index Update - NOV 12

KSE100 : closed on a choppy session inline with expectations however volume and value of KSE100 increased marginally which shows renewed investor interest to keep buying on dip. Intraday resistance of 36900 +/-100 points was very well honored showing continued trend of accumulation of dip.  

Moving forward, we expect he market to remain strong but due to high degree of saturation there is equal chance of market going either side. Support is expected in the range range of 36700 - 36300 +/- 100 Points while breaking above 37100 +/- 100 points will trigger a fresh rally.