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Friday, January 31, 2020

Week 05-2020 Closing Notes

Index has broken it first band of support at 41800 +/100 (link here) to close lower and expected to continue the dip in days ahead. 

WoW basis, average market cap has fallen by another -87.57 billion PKR marking a two weeks continuous streak of value erosion at the bourse. 

Looking forward, we expected a moderate uptrend on 3rd and 4th FEB-20 due to futures settlement after which market may resume its downtrend. Reversal is not expected until mid of Feb 2020. 

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Week 04-2020 Closing Update

Market took a beating for entire week but managed to close higher than its intraday opening on last trading day of the week. We attribute this spike to short covering as Feb futures open for trading in week 05-2020.

WoW basis, market capitalization has registered an average fall of -93.19 billion PKR.

Looking forward, we expect correction trend to continue until healthy consolidation is achieved. Expected support range is 41800-41300-40900 +/100 points. Critical dates are 19-Feb for PIB auction and 29-Jan, 12 Feb, 26-Feb for MTB auctions. These events always have a potential to make their impact on the market. 

Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Week 04-2020 Mid Week Update

Market has remained in bear grip with daily closing continue to fall and below its intraday open. Index continue to make higher low on the top side and lower low on the bottom side. 

DoD basis, market cap has been falling steadily ever since current week opening. Looking forward to the rollover week ahead we expect profit taking to continue and market to remain in consolidation state. This will be opportunity for patient investor to accumulate the dip.

Friday, January 17, 2020

Week 03-2020 Closing Notes

Market remained under selling pressure due to profit taking and the same trend is expected to continue till end of current month. 

Although average market cap posted whopping growth of +141.56 billion PKR WoW basis, this can be attributed to dead cat bounce and market is expected to remain weak during roll over period. There is party time for short sellers and they are calculating their trades. 

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Week 03-2020 - KSE 100 Mid Week Update

Index has started to post signs of exhaustion a bit earlier than our expectation of 43800 +/- 100 vs 43500 +/- 100 actual hit. A bit off for our taste but within acceptable margin of error. Closing has been consistently lower than opening since 13th of Jan 2020. 

Weekend data points on X-axis are nil.

Market cap as expected has been critical since it hit 8000+ billion PKR and profit taking has ensued full swing. DoD basis, market cap has been shrinking since the week opening. An upper hand for bears as it demonstrates profit taking. 

Looking forward, we expect correction wave to continue with expected first support at 42250 - 41800 +/- 100 points. Presenting an accumulation opportunity to patient investor once again. 

Monday, January 13, 2020

Week 02 - Closing Notes

Important Notice

  • Due to toothache I was not able to sit online much.
  • We will be only doing weekly updates unless really important. 

Index remained  bullish, closing at its intraday resistance and expected to keep the run until it hits its exhaustion in the range of 43800 - 44300 +/- 100 points.

WoW basis, average market cap grew by meager +16.43 billion PKR. Market once again entered the saturation territory of 8000+ billion PKR. Overall, it seems that bulls exhaustion is coming soon. 

Looking forward, we expect the index to post moderate growth during week 03-2020 with critical event of MTB auction falling on 15th Jan, second auction falling at 28th Jan and PIB auction falling at 21 Jan. Together, this represents a serious capital drain risk on the market. 

Friday, January 3, 2020

Week 01-2020 Closing Notes

Because picture speaks a thousand words, we will be posting a visual representation of key details. 

Market respected its intraday top and dipped for a healthy correction all the way down to its expected support. Overall, an expected behavior and important for keeping market sustainable.

On Jan 2, (link here) we predicted that market cap is hitting critical levels and exposed to bear attack. Today's dip once again pushed the market cap lower, indicating profit taking. 

DoD basis, market cap dropped -27.32 billion PKR intraday however, WoW average posted positive growth of +120.32 billion PKR which goes in favor of bulls.

Looking forward, weekly channel top remains in territory of 43800 +/- 100 points. Another critical event of PIB auction with potential of negative market impact falls on Wed, 8 Jan 2020 (link here).

Omission Notice:
Jan 2 update (link here) has omitted mention of intraday resistance which is also the channel top for Week-01 owning to last day of trading. This was due to editing oversight. We cannot go back to edit an outdated post but we will make mention here as a patch up. 

Thursday, January 2, 2020

KSE 100 - Index Outlook 2 Jan

Market maintained bullish momentum, breaking its intraday resistance to close higher. Weekly channel top now falls at 43600 +/- 100 points with potential for mild correction here. Support lies at 42300 - 41900 +/- 100 points. 

Market capitalization took a giant leap of +159.66 billion PKR, biggest ever recorded in single day. However, it is once again hoovering in a critical area vulnerable to bear attack. 

Looking forward, we expect the market to remain positive until the end of week 02-2020 with expected mild corrective dip in between. Presenting opportunity for patient investor to buy again. Week closing on Friday will provide some interesting insights. 

Wednesday, January 1, 2020

KSE 100 - Index Outlook 1 Jan

First trading day of the year 2020 started with a powerful kick off, with index honoring its previously tough resistance of 40900 +/- 100 as intraday support and bouncing off to close over its intraday day resistance of 41300 +/-100 points. 

DoD basis, market cap return to positive growth posting +72.23 billion PKR boost, which shows significant return of buyers. Looking forward with we maintain bullish outlook on the market with 41800 +/- 100 as key resistance area which must break for rally to sustain.

Intraday support and resistance lies in the range of 41100 - 41900 +/- 100 points.