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Saturday, March 14, 2020

Week 11-2020 Closing Notes : Corona Strike Take II

Hell hath no fury and Corona has no bottom. With three market halts triggered in a single week, the market seems to not shed the fear of this virus. Luckily, two of the three halts ended up with a sharp intraday recovery. 

While index bottom stands at 35500-34800-34300 +/- 100 points and already tested this zone intraday, we consider this drop to be caused by worldwide panic wave and not the natural dynamics of the market. Therefore, the bottom support remains valid to retest on a closing basis.

On the upside, the index is expected to face resistance in the range of 36800-37500-38700 +/- 100. 

WoW basis, the market headed to another extreme sell-off, with weekly average capitalization breaking its previous worst record. 

Looking forward, it appears the market has hit another extreme bottom and some bounce back is expected. Market volatility knows no bounds so be ready to expect the unexpected. The market is technically trading in the bearish territory now unless significant buying returns in the following week either by improving investor confidence or capital injection by heavyweights like Insurance, Mutual funds, and government entities. 

A possible trigger could be the launch of the NIT-PGI index on Monday 16th-Mar-20 as per PSX release here. The impact of this launch will be known after going live. 

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