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Saturday, March 21, 2020

Week 12-2020 Closing Notes: Corona Virus Strike III

Previous update ( link here ) has mentioned 28600 +/- 100 as the last line of defense for market support and the index did test this level intraday basis on 19-Mar in a touch and go fashion, making an upward retracement from here and finally closing the last trading day of the week in positive with +537.58 (1.78%) points gain.

A meager interest rate cut of 75 bps failed to make any positive impact on the market but did pull up bank stocks from a steep nosedive. 

Although the last trading day of the week closed with slightly positive capitalization gains. However, the weekly average lost a whopping -882.55 billion PKR, by far a new lowest low record of CY2020 and worst one as well.

Looking forward we expect the positive momentum is only an upward correction since the market became extremely oversold on an intraday basis. Therefore support or resistance levels should be re-tested on a closing basis to be valid. [Edit 21-Mar]: Index resistance now falls in the range of 34800-35500 +/- 100 points. The index needs to close and trade above 36300 +/- 300 (EMA21D) to be classified as returns of bulls. 

A possible positive trigger is an economic stimulus package expected on Mar-24 ( link here ). 

Uncertainty prevails at the market and it's too early to predict the market direction or possible recovery and reversal point. All estimates can be made to the best of ability with the flexibility to accept unexpected changes. 

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