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Saturday, February 27, 2021

KSE100 - Week 08-2021: Blood on the Trade Floor!

KSE100 continued to bleed, losing -362 points or -0.8% on a weekly closing basis. The critical pivot level of 46100 +/- 100 has been breached. While a retracement was observed at the support of 45500 +/- 300, it proved to be a dead cat bounce and the leading rejection from pivotal resistance affirms bears in control. As a result, we reiterate our stance as mentioned in so many previous posts that KSE100 is expected to stay in the corrective phase for the first half of Mar-2021 and bear hunters will take the trophy home. 45500 - 44700 +/- 300 remain the two important support levels and in event of a meltdown, we may see a free fall towards 43800 +/- 300. But we assign little probability to a breakdown further below. Also, the strength of the market has been demonstrated by a slow regression and sector-wise exchange of hands rather than a swift meltdown as it used to occur in past. For a better understanding, please read previous updates from the last three weeks. 



Once again, weekly average capitalization dunked by -106.43 billion/PKR - significantly higher than the previous week but still a triple-digit figure on the lower side. This signifies investor confidence in buying the dip. Overall, the bourse is expected to stay in high liquidity owning to numerous reforms for attracting funds into the equity markets. 

Events that may impact the equity markets are PIB auction on 3-Mar & 31-Mar. MTB auction on 10-Mar & 24-Mar and Ijara Sukuk auction on 11-Mar of the CY2021. 

Happy trading and if you enjoyed reading this update, please let us know in the comments section below. 
[Edit 1-Mar: inaccurate capitalization data is corrected and the chart is updated to reflect the correction.]










18 comments:

  1. Master you're a master piece 🙌

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  2. When everybody was saying tezi tezi but you were asking correction correction...
    Hats off to you.

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  3. Its very usefull and always love to read yours weekly analysis. Thanks for your time and efforts.

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  4. SM, you are ruling out the probability of heavy index correction now in MArch as i understand from todays post. Means no fresh bottoms are to be anticipated for quality stocks?

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    1. Post clearly says mid of Mar-2021 will be bear hunting season. Not sure where your senses are?

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  5. Very well said👍🏻👍🏻

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  6. Thanks for the useful post as usual, so targeted buying can result in fruitful results.

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  7. Informative and good info on upcomming events on PIB MTB &SUKUK

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  8. Thanks for sharing. Stay blessed.

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  9. Great work master

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  10. Much appreciated and now waiting for the Mid March 🙂

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  11. Excellent analysis, please keep it up

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