Search This Blog

Saturday, March 6, 2021

KSE100 09-2021: The Belly Dancing Index!

Weekly closing observed a net loss of -27.67 points or -0.06% with the index movement swinging sideways like a belly dancer. The spillover effect of political noise kept the investors confused throughout the week. The index has breached its first support multiple times but rebounded from its pivotal support which makes for a frustrating range-bound movement. With just a week shy of mid-March, we had accurately predicted the onset and behavior of the correction cycle. Currently, the index is afloat below its pivotal resistance of 46100 +/- 100 with a declining momentum and a bearish divergence signal. Major support levels remain intact at 45500 - 44700 +/- 300 and floor at 43800 +/- 300 with a low probability of the situation going that worst.   

On the international front, oil has rallied to record high for the first time post-COVID19. OPEC has treaded cautiously to roll over their production cuts rather than boost production. Whereas, the Biden administration remains committed to green energy by slashing American oil production. The combined impact of these events makes a bullish case for oil therefore OEP sector is likely to remain in the spotlight. 

Looking forward, we advise you to get ready for bear hunting as their head are about to emerge from their hibernation caves, and don't be distracted by the belly dancers! We are on track as planned (refer to the previous few week's updates for better clarity).



Weekly average capitalization fell by -38.39 billion/PKR despite the spectacular rally observed on the last trading day. However, the drop is significantly less when compared to the previous week, demonstrating investor confidence in keeping the inflows strong. The sixty weeks trailing capitalization shows a gradual crossing of the linear trend line over the long-term horizontal resistance of 8000 billion/PKR. This signals a strong probability of the next bull breakout if it is honored as support.

Events that may influence the equity markets are the MTB auction on 10-Mar and Ijara Sukuk auction on 11-Mar, 2021.

Happy trading! If you enjoyed reading this update, then please like, share, and comment below.






22 comments:

  1. Nice and comprehensive blog!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sir with 45,500 proving to be very difficult to break as strong buying comes in, do you expect it to close below 45,000?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Read the blog carefully. Index s range bound pivot to pivot. Which confirms that we are in correction cycle.

      Delete
    2. Thanks for writing the blog, always very helpful. Stay blessed.

      Delete
    3. Sm what does it mean by testing 8Tr market cap? Does it means staying at this market cap for longer time period.
      Also near hunting means we are already ok corrective mode or is it over n bears have gone?

      Delete
  3. Thanks for the update with blend of usual fun. You are the only expert who is consistent to say that "bears yet to emerge" while others are predicting bulls. Readers are sure that others will be wrong again

    ReplyDelete
  4. This is conviction ..when everyone is saying to be bullish after vote of confidence..stock master is sticking to it's analysis

    ReplyDelete
  5. As usual extremely excellent updates and now pictures is bright and clear for next move of Market and investors sentiments love's this blog and God bless you always ameen

    ReplyDelete
  6. Excellent analysis but confused when OEP sector performers and index will have pressure

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. overtime you will understand it..as these are not over night predictions. They span a wider time frame and things happen gradually. Remember when index was -2200, OEP was lower locked and cement was upper capped.

      Delete
  7. In-depth analysis. I feel some gurus are also benefitting from your blog & telegram link to show their borrowed expertise. Please keep it up for the benefit of general public

    ReplyDelete
  8. Amazing,just amazing, you have comprised too many issues in that simple way hats off, a clear picture explaining current relationship of equity market with local and international economic factors....wow. I have been reading all the blog continously but i dont understand why i like this 1 soo much

    ReplyDelete
  9. Amazing,just amazing, you have comprised too many issues in that simple way hats off, a clear picture explaining current relationship of equity market with local and international economic factors....wow. I have been reading all the blog continously but i dont understand why i like this 1 soo much

    ReplyDelete
  10. Very comprehensive and helpful. Stay Blessed SM

    ReplyDelete
  11. Thanks master for your in depth review. Please keep posting such analysis. This really helps in whats happening and ehats going to happen.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Very well and comprehensively explained. Thanks for your analysis and valuable thoughts.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Great play of words Stock Master, mind blown with such valuable analysis

    ReplyDelete