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Sunday, March 28, 2021

KSE100 Week 12-2021: Bears Get Shot!

KSE100 closed a second consecutive week in red, making a weekly loss of -1220.68 points or -2.68%. Our important benchmark of 45500 +/- 300 was finally crossed and honored as support which sends out a strong signal of bulls returns. Looking forward, the index is expected to see a triple top at 47000 +/- 300, and a breakout from here would lead to a double top formation at its all-time high of 53000 +/- 300. On the downside, support remains valid at 44700 - 43000 +/- 300. We expect a few more hiccups ahead, but overall stability has started to emerge. Last week's update blew the horn to mark the start of bear hunting season and there appear very reliable sharpshooters in the league! Plenty of trophies await them.  To better understand this update, please review previous updates from the last few weeks. 

[Edit: Correction has been made to incorrectly report index figures]




Market capitalization recovered quickly after a drop below 8000+ Bn/PKR for two consecutive weeks earlier and closed the week with an average gain of +68.35 Bn/PKR - roughly half of the previous week's gains. During the week SBP auctioned off treasuries worth 1,549.71 Bn/PKR without making a significant dent into the equities market as three short-term liquidity injections overlapped with the auctions and sparing the bourse from a 10-Mar style meltdown. With two forces acting on it in opposite direction, the bourse rather remained indecisive throughout the week - in accordance with newton's laws of motion. 




To recap in layman's terms, SBP conducted treasuries auction on 10-Mar & 24-Mar whereas liquidity injections were conducted on 19-Mar, 25-Mar, and 26-Mar respectively creating a net inflow of +584.13 Bn/PKR. We do not have a reliable mechanism to clearly understand the impact of these money market operations but plotting them against index performance can help us analyze with reasonable covariance. Advancements in data analytics may unlock better understanding. 


Happy trading and if you enjoyed reading this update, please let us know in the comments section below. Like and share with your friends!










36 comments:

  1. Up to the mark master! tremendous overview.

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  2. Good but 1thing is not understand that as we know master you said that march end and april again we see bearish wave uska kia huwa hoga ya nahi

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    1. Market doesn't move in a straight line. Some instability is expected in the early weeks of April and we are almost there. Its a buy on dip opportunity. This is a weekly update. As market progress, the opinion is formed around it.

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  3. Very helpful and tremendously explained. Thank you Master. Stay Blessed

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  4. Nice one. Morale booster 😃

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  5. Better analysis than many fake gurus n paid analyst. Keep continuing this good work!

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  6. Thanks for the amazing work. Jazak-Allah.

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  7. Excellent article as always. Provides the clear prediction of market next possible moves. Regarding your comment on money market operations on index, where can we get this data? As I would like to find out the correlation if any.

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    1. I am working to connect the dots. Any useful information will be shared. It is still in initial stages and we need to drill down for finding the relativity.

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  8. looks like bear hunting season starting soon

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  9. Thanks master for the update. Stay blessed

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  10. Rally to 53k would be around 9k points from here. Isn't that quite a rally? Would index take a breather at 50k in your opinion master?

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    1. Conditional to sustaining above 49K with strong momentum. The triple top must break as mentioned in the post.

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  11. Master rock's wao Great knowledgeable blogs ever

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  12. The mkt is moving as per blog predictions.Every line of the blog has meaningful content.
    No doubt brilliant brain behind!

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  13. Smart work that would be very helpful to take right position on script with maximum accuracy of analysis.
    Sir, Jazakallah

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  14. Nice and priceless analysis, keep it up master

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  15. Very helpful for trading in upcomming days

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  16. Thanks for ur knowledge sharing and giving us a hope of good days ahead in market.

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  17. Excellent article is worth reading.. Are you still anticipating market to get reset to 40K level in upcoming weeks?

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  18. Nice analysis. Admirer of master's skills maa shaa Allah

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  19. Very informative analysis.
    Knowledge along with guidance.
    Thanks.

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  20. Good data collection and analysis. Keep up the good work

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  21. Week after week your blog always give the reader a sneak peak into next week and mkt is behaving exactly as predicted

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