KSE100 Week 46-2021 Closing Notes

The index has carved a new bottom at 43000 +/- 300 and a pivot at 45800 +/- 100. These levels are higher highs indicating a potential of the index reaching a new high for its final rally. The chart below still indicates the same old levels but after a confirmation during the week ahead, it will be updated. A potential downside risk is a speculation on the SBP policy rate hike. However, the mixed signals from global markets and the resurgence of COVID may alter the course. The majority of expectations are towards a hike or stability. It would be really surprising if the rate is cut instead. A major disappointment has come into the market after the failed software rollout and investment confidence is badly hurt, which is portrayed in the slow recovery of the bourse as an investor remains cautious after a traumatizing experience. Looking forward, we expect recovery to continue. Dips can be buying opportunity, the bourse direction hangs in a balance with bulls and bears exerting an equal force. The week ahead is an interesting one indeed. 

Weekly average capitalization once again closed in the red but with lower losses as compared to the previous week. The trend towards the end of the week has witnessed growth. There are no financial market events in the week ahead - a positive trigger for equities.